Why Did Britain Vote to Leave the EU?

wherefore Did Britain right to vote to re send packingt the EU?IntroductionOn the twenty-third June 2016, in a nationwiderefer block offum, British pick push throughrs were asked the questionShould the unite domainre primary(prenominal) a member of the European Union or seduce the European Union? After a bitterly fought election struggle,the electorates of corking Britain chose to yield the European Union (EU).. Thebal haul was extremely close, with 51.9% of the electoral community voting to kick in and 48.1% wanting to endure. At 72%, rigging was mellower(prenominal) than for anyUK-wide vote since the 1992 General preference.The promise of a referendum was first prognosticated by effect see DavidCameron on twenty-third January 2013. He vowed that if the ConservativeParty was elected to power in the General Election of 2015, they would hold a interior(a) referendum on the UKs social station in the EU. After the election was favoredly won, the new Conservative G overnment introduced the European UnionReferendum Bill 2015-16. This ensured that the referendum must be held beforethe end of 2017.In February 2016, regulations set the official date. The referendum lean was split into two groups. Firstly, there wasBritain Stronger in Europe, aiming to persuade the nation that Britain entrusting be intemperateer and far much successful as an active member of the European Union. Onthe other hand, there was choose throw, led by Gisela Stuart and Michael Gove. This campaign group successfully encour yearsd51.9% of the British electorate to vote out, meaning Britain would withdraw itsmembership with the European Union. The Chief Counting Officer, Jenny Watson, who is the Chair of theElectoral Commission, decl ared the national result from the national referendumcount egress held in Manchester on Friday 24 June at 0751 (Uberoi, 2016, p4).This result triggered Brexit. This term became the famous tagline of thereferendum result and is an abbreviat ion of British exit out of the EuropeanUnion. by dint of querying the referendums result, there was limited analytic material on wherefore 51.9% of the British electorate decided to vote to see the EU. The majority of the literature center on the consequences of Brexit and the immediate pre be given it had on Britain. Hence, this triggered interest regarding the question why did Britain decide to encourage right to vote pass on. The purpose of my study is to analyse why the referendum on the 23rdJune 2016, resulted in a decision for Britain to allow the European Union. Theanalysis will be split into common chord fundamental chapters. Firstly, who voted forBrexit, examining the social and geographical aspects of voting to put across.Secondly, examining what the main reasonablenesss were for wanting the UK to withdrawfrom the European Union, including motives such as controlling in-migration andregaining national identity. Lastly, exploring why Vote date won. Thisinvolv es analysing the effects of electoral yield and other occurrenceors such as,the support of the national press and the actions of the campaigns figureheadpoliticians. The objective of this research is to come to an assertive coda on what the or so substantialreasons were 51.9% of the electorate that voted on the 23rd June2016 cute to repudiate the European and promoters that contributed to why Vote snuff it won. Reli open research hires to be developed to analyse why 51.9% of voters wanted to admit the EU, andonly and so can it be understood what mint want from the result.Literature ReviewRecognising why Britain decidedto vote to offer the European Union in the 2016 referendum is important becauseit is essential to understand what changes in politics the British electoratewant. It is imperative to analyse who voted to leave the EU and reasons behindthis choice. As short as the referendum results were inform, masses of selective informationwas evaluated demonstrate how the electorate voted, importantly regardinggeographical areas and social ramify. This included polls from ancestrys such asLord Ashcroft, which was used by macrocosmy a(prenominal) of the national tidingspapers. Other sourcessuch as YouGov, upgrade support this data by getting similar results in pollsthey also ran. However, there is a gap in the theoretical data, as there islimited material questioning the empirical reasons why the British electoratevoted leave and why the Vote perish campaign won. Further more than, the informationbeing produced regarding the referendum quickly travel onto the consequences ofvoting to leave the European Union. Thus, why it is important research isdeveloped regarding why the 2016 Referendum resulted in a vote for Britainleaving the European Union, as the current observations are limited. As it isan extremely current kick the bucketic, thorough analysis is still being developed,therefore the limitations in the research are understood. Who vo ted for BrexitIn order to analyse the reasons why 51.9% of the British voting population wanted to leave the European Union, it is important to recognise who barely voted this way in June 2016. Within hours of the result being confirmed, there was important derives of data being produced regarding how the cosmos voted. Most this information was made public with news showpaper articles. The Daily Mail and The Guardian, both produced articles supplying the full results of analysis of the EU referendum results. This allowed the reader to see how each constituency voted and thence further breaks down the data into significant topics such as time, learning and annual income. The resemblances amidst the two newspapers analysis indicates that the examination of the data must be based on fact and the papers distinguishable political bend is non reflected at heart the analysis, therefore demonstrating the sources credible.Most of thenational press gained their EU referendum res ults data from YouGov or LordAshcrofts Poll. YouGov is an internet-based market research firm and theirmethod actingology involvesobtaining responses from an invited group of internet users, and then weightingthese responses in line with demographic information. This organisationsimilarly splits its analysis of the EU results into socio-economic groups,however the go further by also including factors such as political at extion.YouGov has holded that its opinion polls are nigh precise when compared to itsopp unrivallednts and that its online turn up is more accurate than traditionalpolling methods (YouGov, n.d.). However, non every member of the votingpopulation has access to the internet and internet polls could be argued as chiefly aimed at the younger generation. Therefore, it is claimed online samplescan non accurately reflect the views of the population. On the other hand, LordAshcroft Poll conducted a survey, online and by telephone, later voters cancasted their vote (Ash croft, 2016). The additional method of telephonesurveying adds reliability to the results. This is because most hatful haveaccess to a telephone, increase representativeness. Furthermore, as theresults were collected on the same day plenty had voted, their opinions andthoughts about the referendum were still fresh. Thus, concluding LordAshcrofts poll as more credible.Overall, theliterature regarding who voted for Brexit, importantly shows a trendconcerning which socio-economic groups are thought to be the most important toanalyse. This includes age, levels of education and annual income. On the otherhand, the literature didnt indicate the importee of other social groups,for example different types of hand and ethnicity. Hence why my analysis willlook further into these different unblocks.Reasons for Voting to Leave It is important to understandwhy 51.9% of the British voting population voted to leave the European Union onthe 23rd June 2016. Lord Ashcroft polls state that the terce mostimportant reasons for people choosing Vote Leave wereThe principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.Voting to the leave offered the best hazard for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.Remaining meant little or no choice about how the EU expanded its membership or powers.These three reasons were alsothe top three reasons for Conservative and Labour voters, showing that theexplanations are not completely politically swayed (Ashcroft, 2016).Consequentially, it is light up that Lord Ashcroft concludes the main argument forvoting to leave was the want to regain control over choices that tinted GreatBritain. This is also reflected in Clarke, Goodwin and Whiteleys researchpaper Why Britain Voted for Brexit. National identity and reign is keyin their research to come up out why Britain voted to leave. However, theirresearch is extremely strengthened by their used of models and equations tofurther prove the impact of factors such a s explanatory powers and predictorvariables (Clarke, Goodwin and Whiteley, 2016, p16). The combined use ofpolling and numerical models, reinforces the credibility of theirresults.National newspapers are arguedto be the most significant source of information that influenced peoples vote.The Sun and the Daily Mail were dominant Vote Leave supporters, statingimmigration and taking back control of the United earth as their mostimportant reasons for why Britain should leave the European Union. This couldhave significantly influenced certain socio-economic groups vote, considerablyless academic people, who are the tabloid newspapers majority readers. However,the bias nature of national newspapers, decreases their credibility. Thepolitical opinions expressed by these newspapers regarding why Britain voted toleave the European Union are not totally reliable, callable to their expressedsupport of the Leave Campaign. This is where a gap is research is demonstrated.It has proven difficult to find previous credible research to why specificgroups, such as older people and low income households, decided to vote toleave the European Union.Why did Vote Leave come on? Certain literature doesrecognise the importance of factors allowing Vote Leave to win, such as theimpact of voter turnout. There has been self-coloured debate regarding therelationship between turnout and age. The House of Commons EU ReferendumBriefing paper argues that there was no significant relationship betweenhigher turnout levels and higher levels of support for leave (Uberoi, 2016,p26). However, The Telegraph recognise that there was an important trendbetween age and voter turnout (Kirk and Dunford, 2016). Older voters had a highpercentage turnout, compared to young voters. As strong Vote Leave supporters,the high turnout level for the over sixty-fives is argued to have given Brexita great chance to win. Furthermore, as a result of poor turnout levels fromyoung people, who were strong Remain support s, this is argued to have reducedthe Remain campaigns chance at winning. Therefore, denouncing The House ofCommons EU Referendum Briefing paper argument that the trend between age andturnout was weak.ConclusionsDue to the lack of research,analysing which are the most important factors that resulted in a vote forBritain to leave the European Union, it is important further studies aredeveloped. Furthermore, due to much of the accessible materials being newspaperarticles, the credibility of the information visible(prenominal) is weak. This is due tothe significant political biasness of the national press. Substantial amountsof data about who voted for Brexit was released in under 24 hours of the resultbeing confirmed. However, research regarding what reasons voters had for votingto leave and why the Leave campaign won, has been proven hard to find. Moreover,as the military issue of why the result of the 2016 referendum resulted in a vote forBritain to leave the European Union is stil l recent, it is important torecognise that data is still being analysed.Who voted for Brexit?It is important to firstlyoutline who in the United body politicvoted to leave the European Union. Throughout the campaign, it was clear that particularsocial groups would be strong Vote Leave supporters, such as older citizens andpeople who work in certain trades such as the angle industry. However, as theresults came in on the night of 23 June 2016, votes to leave had higher sharesthan expected. This chapter will give a focused quantitative analysis regardingwho voted to leave the European Union in June 2016. The study will focus oncore demographics such as age, gender and ethnicity. Furthermore, it isimportant to look at how education and party allegiance impacted on peoplesdecision to vote the leave the EU. A breakdown of how the regions at heart theUnited Kingdom will also be conducted, analysing if geographical differencespresented a relationship with voters decisions. A later chapt er will build on the getingconsiderations, examining why peoplevoted in this manner.RegionsThe United Kingdom became adivided nation when the results began to come in on the night of 23 June 2016.The earliest returns, from Newcastle and Sunderland, showed higher shares forleave than had been anticipated. The trend persisted Scotland, NorthernIreland and London were the only three regions in which a majority voted to uphold and by four oclock in the morning the broadcasters were ready toannounce that the country had voted for Brexit (Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p166).The vote to Remain in Scotland was considerably higher than anywhere else, at62% of the vote. However, in England and Wales the vote to Leave won, withEngland having the highest percentage of support for the Vote Leave campaign,but still very narrow at 53.2%. Nine out of the twelve regions of the UnitedKingdom voted to leave the European Union. The large Brexit votes in the Northof England were the first signals of wh at was to come in the referendum. In theNorth East, 58% of voters supported leaving the EU. harmonize to the Daily Telegraph, more than one in threepeople along the coast north of Hartlepool regard themselves in the DEsocial-class in the stomach(a) census. This can be seen a sign of Leaves triumph ofsuccessfully appealing to working-class voters (Coles, Kirk and Krol, 2016).The most Eurosceptic part of the United Kingdom was the West Midlands,totalling the highest percentage vote to leave, at 59.2%. UKIP did not gain asignificant foothold in the General Election, so Vote Leave might have beensurprised that the electorate of the West Midlands strongly voted out of theEU. The only region in England to vote Remain was London. The cosmopolitan city had polled as the most Europhilic part of England before the referendum. Furthermore, it is home to the financial City of London, whose businesses and banks had mainly backed the professed stability of voting to last out. Thus, the result of 59.9% of the London electorate voting to stay in the European Union was expected. However, this result left the Capital city surrounded by pro-Brexit regional neighbours (Coles, Kirk and Krol, 2016) voice of Votes to Leave (Swales, 2016, p9)AgeA strong Vote Leavesupporter from the beginning of the campaign was voters over the age of 65.According to statistics 60% of over 65 year olds voted to leave the EuropeanUnion. This is closely followed by over 56% of 45 to 64 year olds also comingto the decision the United Kingdom is better out of the EU (Ashcroft, 2016).The Daily Telegraph provides furtheranalysis showing that the East coast areas that scored the highest anti-EUvoteswere also the areas with the highest pensioner populace. Just two of the top 30areas for over 65s voted to Remain South Lakeland in the North West and SouthHams in the South West (Boult, 2016). This is supported by Ashcroft andCulwicks findings, showing that more than half of those on a private pensionvoted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired with only a state pension(Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p167).By contrast, the youngergenerations of Britain have a contrasting view. Statistics show that 73% of 18to 24 year olds voted to remain (Ashcroft, 2016). TheSun newspaper called this divide The Generation Gap, analysing how agesignificantly showed a trend in how different people voted in the referendum.The age divide is shown clearly by Ashcroft and Culwicks discovery that mostof those with children aged ecstasy or under voted to remain most of those whosechildren were aged el steady or older voted to leave (Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016,p167). This illustrates how there was a clear correlativity between the age ofvoters and their decision to vote Remain or Leave in the 2016 Referendum.It is pa decenniumt that the older the voter is, the more promising they would have votedto leave the European Union, take down though some of them wont live long enough toexperience the consequence s.EducationRecent findings show that people with hardly a(prenominal)er qualifications and lower standards of education, were more likely to have voted to leave the European Union. The tables in the European Union Referendum Briefing paper clearly show that there is obvious coefficient of correlation between the number of non-graduates and the percentage of people who voted to leave. The opposite is reciprocated on the graph regarding graduates, showing strong correspondence between holding a degree and voting to remain (Uberoi, 2016, p21). This evidence is parallel with Lord Ashcrofts findings, stating a majority (57%) of those with a university degree voted to remain, as did 64% of those with a higher degreeAmong those whose formal education ended at secondary domesticate or earlier, a large majority voted to leave (Ashcroft, 2016). Therefore, it is evident that voters with fewer qualifications voted to enforce Brexit.(Uberoi, 2016, p21)Social Class(Uberoi, 2016, p22). The clea r relationship between level ofeducation and voting to leave the European Union is very closely linked to thesimilar correlation regarding social classes and level of income.Professionals and managers (often described as the ABs) were the only socialgroup among which a majority (57%) voted to remain, stated Ashcroft andCulwick. However, nearly two thirds of skilled manual workers (C2s), and ofunskilled manual workers and those dependent on state benefits, voted forBrexit (Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p168). In contrast to this, the CommonsLibrary Briefing Paper argues there is little correlation betweensocio-economic indicators and the proportion of people voting to leave. Thereis an arguably weaker relationship between the median weekly earning in localauthorities and the amount of people voting to leave. Furthermore, there is noobvious correlation between the rank of a local authority in terms ofdeprivation and vote shares to leave. (Uberoi, 2016, p22). Therefore, this suggeststh at votes for Leave and Remain are not as strongly related to social class asinitially thought. However, considering various information, it is evident thatthere is a correlation between social class and peoples opinions regarding theEU referendum. Thus, voters in lower social classes were more likely to have votedto leave the European Union.IndustriesCertain trades, such as thefishing industry, were huge supporters of the Vote Leave campaign. When theUnited Kingdom joined what became the European Union, fishermens quotas andrights were cut dramatically, causing a steady decline of the industrysprevious success. Many of the current quotas give large shares of catches toother fishermen inside the EU. Thus, when the opportunity came to have animpact on the UKs decision on its EU membership, fishermen became a keytouchstone for Brexit. It is argued that they voted Leave to give the industrya chance to regain control. However, there is some argument over whether itwill be as beneficial f or fishermen as the leave campaign promised. Becausepursuing Article 50 could take years, the UK is still a member of the EU.Furthermore, if new arrangements are negotiated aft(prenominal) Brexit, they may not benecessarily more generous as the fishing industry will still be tied tointernational agreements. However, due to the attractive opportunity arising toregain control, the fishing industry was a strong supporter of leaving the EU.Furthermore, many postindustrial areas of the UK, that receive a pickle of EU funding, had a greatersupport for Brexit than initially expected. For example, the Valleys in SouthWales are historically industrial and strong Labour supporters, so it wasassumed they were unspoiled remain en consequentlyiasts. Thus, it came as a shock whenthese forts voted in favour of Brexit, with areas such as Neath PortTalbot and Caerphilly voting to leave by over 56%. Therefore, it is evidentthat industrial areas werent as supportive of the EU as originally thought . EthnicityLord Ashcrofts poll conducted on the day of the referendum appoint significant correlation between a vote to Leave the European Union and a voters ethnicity and religion. It is argued that 53% of White voters supported the decision to withdraw the United Kingdoms membership with the EU. This was the only ethnicity group to have a majority backing for the Vote Leave campaign. Other ethnicities such as, Mixed, Asian or Black, their amount of votes to Leave did not go higher than 33% (Ashcroft, 2016). This shows that people with White ethnicity were more likely to have voted for Brexit, but only by a narrow majority. Furthermore, it can be argued that there is a relationship between ethnicity and national identity. People from ethnic minorities are more likely to identify as British only, while white respondents are more likely to identify as English only according to the 2011 Census. The tables from the Electoral Commission show that English local authorities with higher p roportions of people who gave their national identity as British only in the 2011 Census were more likely to usher lower vote shares for Leave. (Uberoi, 2016)English local authoritieswith higher proportions of people who classified their national identity asEnglish only were more likely to record highervote shares for Leave (Uberoi, 2016). This tells us that white voters were morelikely to have voted for Brexit, and it could be explained due to their viewsregarding national identity.Regarding religion, supportfor Brexit is more mixed. Christians were set up to have the highest percentagevote to leave the European Union, with the greatest majority at 58%. This isfollowed by 54% of the Jewish electorate and 52% of Sikhs also voting for thedecision to leave. This was in stark contrast to other religions, such asMuslim or Hindu, whose support to leave did not go above 30% (Ashcroft, 2016).Party AllegianceIt is important to analyse who voted for Brexitthrough the perspective of party a llegiance. Many political parties were dividedover the question, Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EuropeanUnion or leave the European Union?, with UKIP being one of the onlysignificant parties providing a joined front on the issue. For example, 58% ofthose who voted Conservative in the 2015 General Election voted to leave theEU. While 63% of the Op mystify Party Labour supporters voted to remain in theEU, as did seven out of ten Liberal Democrats and 75% of Green voters.Conservative voters constituted just over three out of every ten Remainsupporters, and four in ten leavers. Labour voters made up four in every tenRemain supporters, and two in ten leavers. Scottish National Party votersbacked the Remain campaign by nearly two to one, with 64% voting for the UnitedKingdom to remain within the EU (Ashcroft, 2016). Ashcroft and Culwick analysethis result further stating, since Scotlands First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon,would use Scotlands support for EU membership as the basis to seek a secondreferendum on Scottish independence, nearly half (44%) of Scottish support forBrexit came from her own SNP supporters (Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016,p169). UKIP was the only party with asignificant majority, with 96% of people who voted for them in the 2015 GeneralElection voting to leave the European Union. Therefore, regarding partyallegiance, the picture was quite mixed. However, Conservative supporters weremore likely to vote to leave and without a need for explanation, UKIPen thereforeiasts were solid supporters of Brexit.Was there a Vote Leave Stereotype?Throughout the referendum campaign, it could be argued that there was a stereotype created regarding the type of person that would have voted to leave the European Union. Whilst there was no gender gap, the issue divides the population according to age, political learnings and education as the key deciding issues. A significant final result that portrayed the use of stereotypes during the referendum was th e publication of the Operation Black Vote poster. The poster was created to encourage black people to vote, however many condemned the Saatchi and Saatchi devised image of an Asian woman balanced on a see-saw with a shaven-headed white man, which was portrayed as a thug. It creates an implication that all Brexit voters are of white ethnicity, who do not welcome ethnic minorities, thus some would argue encouraging sectarian politics. The London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, expressed his concern over the image due to it reinforcing stereotypes (Proto, 2016). This is significant because he was a Britain Stronger in Europe campaign supporter, who is also from an ethnic nonage in Britain. Therefore, there is strong evidence to support the argument that there was a stereotype created around who voted for Brexit. From the research conducted, the most significant perceptions can be concluded as white ethnicity, older and of lower education. What are the reasons for voting to leave the EU?Building fr om the previous considerations regarding whovoted for Brexit, it is important is understand what reasons voters had for wanting to leave the European Union. Afocal point for the Vote Leave campaign was the amount of money the UnitedKingdom contributed to the EU. They claimed the UK pays 350 one million million a weekinto the EU budget and implied it could be spent on the NHS instead. Thisshocked many voters and it could be argued the claim helped swing the votetowards Brexit. Other key arguments supporting the decision to vote to leavethe European Union are that decisions about the UK should be made in the UK,control over immigration and the fear that remaining in the EU meant littlechoice about how the EU can expand its powers. These reasons were the top threemost important reasons for people who voted to leave the EU according to LordAshcrofts Poll (Ashcroft, 2016). This chapter will analyse the reasons why51.9% of the electorate who voted in the 2016 referendum wanted to leave t heEuropean Union. National Identity and Sovereignty National identity was a key issue causing many voters tochoose to support Brexit and the dispatchdom for Britain to incline its own affairs wasat the centre of the leave campaign. This was established in its slogan, VoteLeave, Take Control. A pre-referendum survey entrap that 51% of peopleindicated that they thought EU membership eroded British sovereignty (Clarke,Goodwin and Whitely, 2016, p12). This relates to Lord Ashcroftsfindings that the most important reasons for voting Leave was the principlethat decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK (Ashcroft, 2016). Britainhas a particular notion of sovereignty enshrined in one intuition, rather thanshared among several. When what was then known as the European frugal Community was created in 1957, its aim was to avoid another destructive war in Europe by making its countries economically interdependent. However, what began as a purely monetary union has now expanded and b ecome accountable for many different areas of policy, from agriculture to transport. When arranging the deal regarding the UKs membership with the EEC, then Prime Minister, Edward Heath promised that there is no question of any erosion of essential national sovereignty. However, The Economist argues this is only true in the sense that fan tan can repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, ignoring the reality that EU membership meant that European Law undermines national law (The Economist, 2016). This could explain why the older generation were strong Vote Leave supporters, as they remember the times before the UK became a member of the EU. It is argued that before the UK joined the EU they were considered a significant global power, and since then their impact has declined. On the other hand, Britain is signed up to over 700 international treaties that encroach on sovereignty. Although the EU has the greatest impact, others are also significant, such as NATO. However, as Lord Ashc roft found, Brexit was successful because of peoples fear that remaining in the EU meant little choice about how it expanded its powers and encroached upon British sovereignty (Ashcroft, 2016).The British Election pick out Team argue that Vote Leaves slogan, Vote Leave, Take Control, had a more significant impact on some peoples lives than originally thought, due to it affecting their locus of control (Election Study Team, 2016). It represents the extent that people think they are in control over what happens to them. People with an internal locus of control think they are themselves largely responsible for the things that happen to them, whilst those with an external locus of control tend to believe things are controlled by outside forces they cannot influence, such as other people, fate, or chance, (Election Study Team, 2016). Their research helps explain peoples attitudes regarding losing their national identity and sovereignty. Those with an external locus of control are more l ikely to blame others, such as immigrants, for any hardship they may come by. They found that those with an external locus of control were much more likely to vote Leave (and take control) than those with an internal locus of control, as shown in the graph (Election Study Team, 2016). Thus concluding national identity had a significant impact on deciding to vote Leave.(Election Study Team, 2016)ImmigrationIt is argued that national identity is further threatened by the issue of immigration. This was made a defining issue by the Vote Leave campaign that fuelled a lot of voters passions. Additionally, Lord Ashcrofts poll declared voting to Leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders the second most important reason to leave the European Union (Ashcroft, 2016). The issue of immigration became more important when Poland and Romania joined the EU, in 2004 and 2007 respectively. The EUs principle of the free movement of labour made immig ration a concern for Britain, fuelled by tabloid reports of migrants taking jobs and driving down wages. EU migrants were often blamed for modify public services, such as NHS waiting lists. These claims were change magnitude significantly in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis the subsequent austerity, involving cuts in public spending and thus cuts in public services, led to even more blame and hostility towards EU migrant workers. This was significantly felt amongst older people and those living in poorer areas.(Clarke, Goodwin and Whitely, 2016, p31)Further events helped the leave campaign in their efforts togain support. Oxford Universitys Migration Observatory reported that theEurozone crisis of 2015 was encouraging more southern European migrants totravel to the UK than ever before, join those from Eastern Europe(University of Oxford, 2016). Furthermore, the Office of National Statisticspublished figures stating that 1.2 million more EU migrants have been given Nat ionalInsurance number in the last five years than had shown up in the immigrationfigures. Vote Leave used these examples to show how the UK had lost control ofits immigration system, allowing for immigration to become one of the mostsignificant explanatory powers in the likelihood of voting Leave. Clarke,Goodwin and Whitely calculated that as benefit-cost calculations regardingimmigration moved from negative to positive, the likelihood of voting Leaveincreased by 0.75 points (on a 0-1 scale) (Clarke, Goodwin and Whitely, 2016, p17).Immigration had the second strongest effect on the electorates vote in thereferendum. This aligns with Lord Ashcrofts poll, where immigration was alsosaid to be the second most important reason for voting Leave (Ashcroft, 2016). Ashcroft and Culwick found that immigration was a constantconcern amongst the undecided voters in the focus groups they conducted. Theyfound that the worry for many concentrated around competition for school placesand public serv ices. A member of the group stated Yesterday, my boss, when herchild didnt get into the school she wanted, she said, Thats it, Im out.(Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p125). Due to increased UK population, it isargued that it is becoming increasingly competitive to get children intoschools and difficult to use public services, such as reservation appointments tosee your GP. The increased pressure on public services is suggested to bedecreasing its quality, which many would blame on immigration and morespecifically the vindicated door policy of the EU. This is important to the argumentto why people no longer wanted to be a member of the European Union. Other events that helped the leave campaign make immigrationa successful focus point of encouraging people to vote for Brexit, was thesuggestion that dud was about to join the EU. Thus, increasing the EuropeanUnions population and therefore the number eligible to come into the U.K. Infocus groups, Ashcroft and Culwick found that some ha d the impression thatTurkish membership was impending and were concerned, stating The immigrationthing will explode. If we stay in and Turkey joins the EU, there are millionsof Turks who want to come to the UK. It really worries me. leave alone they have jobs?Will they have their own money? Will they have private health care? (Ashcroftand Culwick, 2016, p127). This worry links to the previous point about addedstrain to public services, showing that is a significant concern for people.Due to its importance, it is possible it may have swayed the undecided votersin the focus group to vote to Leave. In a survey I conducted in March 2017, I found that 64% ofpeople believed that immigration had become a bigger issue in the UK since2015, when David Cameron inform the EU referendum. Furthermore, 40% ofrespondents felt that immigration had had a negative/extremely negative impacton terrorism, which could have been higher if the survey was conducted a fewdays later, when the Westminster att ack took place. Finally, 66% of respondentsdid not want immigration to increase, proving that most people want morecontrol over immigration. (Questionnaire information available in appendix). Costs of EU MembershipA key focal point of the Vote Leave campaign was their calculation that the UK sent 350 million a week to the European Union and the country did not receive an equal amount back, thus they argued the be of being a member outweighed the benefits. If the UK left the EU, it is believed that one thousand thousands of pounds would become available for other priorities, causing many people to support Brexit. Furthermore, leaving the EU would give the UK government the power to decide where to spend the money. The Vote Leave campaign websites states, We can spend our money on our priorities like the NHS, schools and housing. Relating back to sovereignty, those who believe strongly in their national identity want to be able to spend their money on home grounds, thus causing them to vote Leave. However, the Vote Leave campaign were criticised for theirstatement that the UK sent the EU 350 million a week. It is argued thiscalculation is not true. It ignores the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher,agricultural subsidies and developmental subsidies for poorer areas. Thisleaves the net contribution of 161 million a week. Ashcroft and Culwick foundin their focus groups that probably because of the controversy, the 350million number stuck in voters minds and even if they could not remember thespecific number, they knew it was still huge. One participant stated, Its theamount it costs that worries me. It is something like ten billion a day? Or isit ten million? Or seven million. Anyway, I was shocked when I heard.(Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p133). Thus, the cost of EU membership became animportant issue for many voters and Vote Leave were successful in making theirpoint clear and believable, therefore causing many people to vote Leave. ConclusionsNational iden tity, immigration and the costs of EUmembership are the most significant reasons for why 52% of voters wanted toleave the EU. National identity is an issue that is deep root for most andimportant for older voters due to them understanding how the UK worked beforebecoming a member of the European Union. Anti-immigration attitudes werefuelled by events such as Romania and Poland joining the EU, followed by the2008 economic recession. This was especially felt amongst older voters andthose living in impoverished towns. Immigration and the costs of EU membershipwere extremely current issues, that gained a lot of importance during thereferendum campaign. They pushed a lot of undecided voters to support VoteLeave. Since the campaigns have ended these issues have had a lot less media attention,thus reducing their significance on public opinion. However, regaining controland national identity will always be significant when processing Brexit. Why did Vote Leave Win?In addition to understandi ng what reasons voters had for wanting to leave the European Union, itis important to consider other factors as to why Vote Leave was successful.This analysis will broadly discuss issues such as voterturnout and party divisions which were significant to the Leave campaignstriumph. It will examine why the Vote Leave campaign is considered to have beenmore effective than the Stronger in Europe campaign, due to the factors ofhaving a clear pass along and gaining the support of the mainstream press. TurnoutA fatal element to why Brexit won was the issue ofturnout. The Electoral Commission confirmed that 72.2% of registered voterscasted their ballots on the 24th June 2016. This verified a total of33,568,184 ballot papers counted, narrowly missing the record mark ofparticipation in recent elections, where in the 1992 General Election33,614,074 people went to the ballot box, accounting for 72.3% of theelectorate. According to the NatCen Panel, 54% of those who did not vote in the2015 Gen eral Election voted in the EU referendum. This helps explain whyturnout was higher than the most recent General Election, 72.2% compared to66.1%, due to a surge of new voters (Swales, 2016, p19). The British votingpopulation turned out in huge numbers. However, the levels of turnout from specificgroups is argued to have had a significant impact on the referendum result. Before the referendum, campaigners for Remain were concernedthat the younger generation would cost Britain its succeeding(a) within the EU, due tothem not turning out to vote on the day. They were classed as Remains mostsecure voters and these concerns became reality on voting day. Moreover, theimpact of the secure Leave campaign supporters, the older generation, assuredto turn out in high numbers, significantly effecting why it resulted in a votefor Brexit. The Guardian states, the median age in an area was the strongest predictor ofturnout and showed a familiar pattern the older the median age in an area,the more likely it was to have had a high turnout (Elgot, 2016). For example,Eastbourne, which has a median age of 71.5 years old, had a turnout of 74.7%.Conversely, Newham had one of the lowest turnouts and its medium age is muchlower at 29. There were early cries after the referendum result was announcedthat the older voters had betrayed the younger generation, however this wascountered by the argument that they did not vote in sufficient numbers. It is aconstant trend in UK elections that under 25 year olds have the lowest turnoutcompared to other age groups. This could be due to low political engagement anda decreasing sense of duty to vote. Recent evidence suggests that more young voters turned out to vote than initially estimated. The new findings based on detailed surveying after the referendum by Opinium and analysed by London School of Economics suggests that turnout levels for 18-24 year olds was significantly higher than the initial figures, as shown in the table below. (Helm, 20 16). This contradicts the argument that Brexit was mainly reach through the unconcern of young voters. Therefore, the low turnout of young voters may not be as significant as first thought, however this turnout level is still low in comparison to their findings of turnout levels of over 65s.The CampaignsIt is argued that the Vote Leave campaign, further promoted by alternative campaigns such as Leave.EU and grassroots Out, was much more effective than the Remain campaign. Firstly, they had a very well-defined and stronger message of Take Back Control. However, Remain failed to create a message to compete with this populist slogan. Their key message was the warnings of economic risks of leaving the EU, but this lacked simplicity and were often dismissed as scare-mongering, therefore failing to move enough voters. The messages that the pubic seemed to most remember were those of the Leave campaign, such as the claim that the UK contributed 350 million a week to the EU, which could be spent on the NHS and the claim that Turkey was close to joining the EU. Subsequently, establishing that Vote Leave were more successful at portraying their message to the public, hence gaining more votes. An additional factor that allowed the Vote Leave campaign togain more support was the significant backing of the press, especially the twomost read newspapers, The Daily Mail and The Sun. Data fromthe British Election Study found that some 70% of Sun readers voted Leave inthe referendum, followed by 66% of Daily Mail readers. Despite the issues ofdeclining readership and lack of trust in the press, it is argued the pressstill sets the agenda, Where the newspapers lead on issues, far more trustedbroadcasters follow (Martinson, 2016). LoughboroughUniversitys centre for research in communication and culture found thatsubjects that dominated the press often led television news. Thus, explainingwhy numerous stories about immigration, a key Vote Leave issue, continuedunrelenting during the last few weeks of the campaign, whilst those about theeconomy, a key Remain issue, declined (Martinson, 2016). Furthermore, areport by NatCen interestingly found that regarding the EU referendum vote,people were more likely to follow the position of the newspaper they read,rather than the political party they identified with (Swales, 2016, p27). Dueto the support of the most widely read national newspapers, it is argued thatthis was a significant reason why the Leave campaign gained more votes. The Politicians Throughout the campaign certain figurehead politiciansarose, whilst others fell. Vote Leave campaign leaders, such as Nigel Farageand Boris Johnson, created enthusiasm amongst supporters. However, even thoughthe Remain campaign had the support of the Prime Minister and most ofParliament, they failed to connect with voters, especially the Labour Party.The passion amongst the Leave campaign and the lack of within Remain, motivatedmany voters to go to the polls and vote to le ave the EU. A key issue was that the public stopped listening to then Prime Minister, David Cameron. promising the referendum is argued to have been vital to his success in the 2015 General Election and by putting himself at the front of the Remain campaign, he put his political future at stake. He assured the public of his ability to secure fundamental change in the UKs relationship with the EU through reforms thus when he came back after nine months of negotiations with only modest change, it was inevitable his concessions would not persuade many floating voters to give him the benefit of the doubt and vote remain (BBC News, 2016). Furthermore, the populist aspect of the Leave campaign appealed to voters who felt most politicians, including the Prime Minister, where out of touch with the ordinary people. Brexit could be described as a pass off against the establishment and those cocooned in their Westminster bubble. (Swales, 2016, p21) Labour was more unite on the issue of UK m embership in comparison to the Conservative Party,with only a minority of MPs such as Gisela Stuart supporting Brexit. However,another failure of the Remain campaign was Labours inability to connect withits voters. They misjudged the mood of their voters, this was shown by theirstronghold constituencies voting to Leave. For example, North East areas suchas Sunderland, resulted in a 61% to 39%who voted to Leave. It is argued that Labour was sending mixed messages to thevoters, and it is blamed on less-traveled leader, Jeremy Corbyns lukewarmendorsement of continued EU membership (Clarke, Goodwin and Whitely, 2016, p10). NatCen haveevidence to support the claim that Labour were sending mixed message and thuspeople did not know where the party stood regarding EU membership. Just overhalf of the people thought that Labour MPs mainly backed remain, with a quartersaying they were fairly evenly divided, and nearly two-fifths answering, dontknow (Swales, 2016, p21). Only just over half of Labour supporters knew the actualposition of Labour MPs, proving that Labour failed to connect with their votersand thus did not enthuse supporters to vote Remain with them. The enthusiasm for Vote Leave created by figuressuch as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage influenced a lot of people to follow andsupport their campaign. The Leave campaign was described as more passionatethan its Remain opponents, as people such as Nigel Farage had been fightingtheir whole political career for this outcome. Furthermore, the BBC states the justicesecretary brought intellectual heft and strategic nous to the table while theformer mayor of London, after a bout of soul-searching, brought star appeal andability to appeal across the party divide, regarding Michael Gove and BorisJohnson (BBC News, 2016). This further emphasises the appeal towards thepopulist aspect of the Leave campaign, who were argued to be on the side ofordinary people. Recent models found that the leader image cues provided byFarage and Johnson were influential on emotions about EU membership. Feelingsabout these two figures moved from negative to positive along the 0-10likeability scale, the probability of voting Leave increased by 0.44 points (Clarke, Goodwin and Whitely,2016, p18). Therefore, likeability of the Leave campaigns figureheads wassignificant to their success.Changes since 1975In 1975, the UKelectorate was asked Do you think the United Kingdom should stayin the European Community? and Yes won by 67.2%. In comparison, regardingmodern day politics, there are lower levels of deference to mainstream,centrist politicians. As stated above, people are less willing to listen to thepolitical elites, such as the Prime Minister. Explaining why populist figureheadslike Boris Johnson were so successful in the campaign, as they appealed to theeveryday working class, which were Vote Leaves strongest supporters. In 1975,new Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher got the Conservative Party enthused aboutEuropean members hip, however the fact thatCameron was unabletofind a common binding chord within his own party, remains the singlelargest difference to the 1975 referendum(Acharya, 2016). Previously, the main parties ofEngland were united that we should not leave the Community, further strengthenedby the support of the press. Presently, it is argued the coherence and theability to drive a nation is missing drastically among politicians (Acharya,2016). This allowed Vote Leave to take advantage, thus allowing them toeffectively gain more support than the Stronger in Europe campaign, using theirenthusiasm and significant support of the press to motivate more people to goto the polls and vote to leave the European Union. ConclusionsVote Leave won the referendum dueto having a more efficient and appealing campaign. They had an loving slogan,compared to Britain Stronger in Europe and most significantly had the supportof the mainstream press. Their campaign leaders became very popular, whilstRemain strug gled to get people to listen and remember what they were saying.The Remain campaign was further weakened by the disunity of the Labour party,and thus failed to understand the mood of many Labour voters. This allowed the Leavecampaign to gain the support of the ordinary man, and increased thepopulist aspect of their campaign. An important factor contributingto their success was turnout. Due to older people turning out in high numbersand younger people not going to the polls, it gave Leave an advantage. As theresult was so close, 48% to 52%, if more younger people voted, Vote Leave maynot have been successful. However, due to recent polls, such as Opinium,turnout may not have been as a significant factor as first thought. ConclusionWhy did the 2016 Referendum result in a vote for Britain leaving theEU?The objective of this research was to come to an assertiveconclusion on what the most importantreasons were 51.9% of the electorate that voted on the 23rd June2016 wanted to leave the Eu ropean and understand factors that contributed to why Vote Leave won. This was donethrough examining who voted for Brexit, what are the reasons for voting toleave the EU and why did Vote Leave win? By answering these key questions, Ihave come to the following conclusions. According to the research, England was the most Euroscepticcountry of the United Kingdom, where the only region who voted to remain in theEuropean Union was London. The more deprived areas of the country were morelikely to support Brexit, contributing to the fact that those with fewerqualifications and nearly two thirds of skilled manual workers (C2s), and ofunskilled manual workers and those dependent on state benefits, voted forBrexit (Ashcroft and Culwick, 2016, p168). A voters age, ethnicity and partyallegiance significantly showed a trend in Vote Leave support. Over 65s were aconstant supporter of Leave throughout the campaign. Furthermore, people withWhite ethnicity and Conservative supporters were more likel y to have voted forBrexit. As a consequence, there was a stereotype created around who voted forBrexit. From the research conducted, the most significant perceptions can beconcluded as White ethnicity, older and of lower education.National identity, immigration and the costs of EUmembership are the most significant reasons for why 51.9% of voters wanted toleave the EU. Each issue had constant media attention throughout the campaign,causing them to become salient issues. However, since the campaigns have ended,the attention dedicated to immigration and the costs of EU membership hasdeclined. National identity and sovereignty however have stayed at theforefront of the Brexit process. The importance of a nations power will neverdecline, hence why national identity and taking back control will always besignificant when processing Brexit.Vote Leave won due to running a more efficient campaign.Significantly, their simple slogan, Vote Leave, Take Control was memorable tovoters, alongside t heir key issues such as immigration and the 350 millionweekly EU fee. The passions of their campaign figureheads got voters listening,compared to the failed attempts by the Prime Minister. Turnout was alsoimportant and as the final result was so close,if more younger people voted, Vote Leave may not have been successful, butrecent polls, such as Opinium, have suggested turnout may not have been assignificant as originally thought. This research is important as itgives a clear quantitative and qualitative analysis of why the 2016 referendumresulted in a vote for Britain leaving the European Union. There was limitedcredible research on the topic, due to the main publishing being newspapersarticles, where political bias is high. Furthermore, other papers such as TheHouse of Commons EU Referendum Briefing paper discredited certain significanttrends, such as the correlation between age and turnout, additionallysocio-economic indicators and voting to leave. Therefore, reliable researchnee ded to be developed to analyse why 51.9% of voters wanted to leave the EU,and only then can it be understood what people want from the result. Appendix Immigration QuestionnaireWhat is your age?What is your gender?What race/ethnicity best describes you?Current UK residency? What is your greatest source ofinformation regarding news and current affairs?Which one of these is the biggestissue facing the UK right now?EconomyHealthcareImmigrationTerrorismEducationOtherDo you think immigration has become a biggerissue in the UK in the past 2 years?On a scale from 1-5 how concerned are you aboutEU immigration? (1= no concern, 5= concerned)On a scale from 1-5 how concerned are you aboutEU immigration? (1= no concern, 5= concerned)Ona scale from 1-5 (1=negative, 5=positive), do you think immigration has aneffect onBritish cultureCrimeJob shortagesEconomyTerrorismWhatis your preference regarding current levels of immigration into the UK?Increase a lotIncrease a little Remain the sameDecrease a littleDecrease a lotDont knowSample surface 126 online, 36 face to faceDue to the use of online surveying, the survey was nottotally representative of the British Adult population. The online surveyattracted younger respondents, making the results significantly skewed towards18-24 year olds. An attempt to overcome this problem was made by conductingface-to-face surveys, as it was easier to target the audience. This was asuccess, however it was difficult to get as many respondents, as few peoplewanted to take the time to complete the survey. Bibliography Acharya, D. (2016). Brexit in 2016 and 1975 Twohistorical EU referendums speak of two different ideas of Britain. onlineFirstpost. 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